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5 Reasons US Job Growth Might Be a Long Way Off


Posted by: Fred Marion

September 30, 2009

Even a mountain of stimulus money can’t change the laws of economics. There are certain criteria that must be met for the U.S. economy to thrive. Namely, your citizens must have jobs so they can pay taxes, buy goodies and keep the GDP growing. “Greenshoots” might look good, but they don’t mean the economy’s golden hour is right around the corner. In fact, there are at least five reasons why it could be a long way off:

1) At some point, come hell or high water, the U.S. government must do something to curb the national debt. There are two solutions: raise taxes or cut spending. Both are bad for the economy and the job market.

2) The historically-low interest rates we’re enjoying aren’t going to last forever. When rates rise, business growth slows proportionally.

3) We’re going to have to address inflation. A falling dollar and dismal interest rates means foreign investors are going to look elsewhere for their profits. If or when that happens, the weight our government’s debt will grow heavier. We’ll need to print more money (thereby growing the inflation rate further) or raise interest rates to make foreign investment look more attractive. Both solutions put more stress on the U.S. economy.

4) Short-term economic growth through government spending must be replaced by other forms of growth. What happens if businesses still aren’t spending money when the stimulus package runs out? The government doesn’t collect enough money in taxes and interest rates/taxes must go up.

5) Globalization makes foreign workers look cheaper. In order to compete with the rest of the world, the average U.S. employee is going to need to become more productive – either by working longer hours for the same pay, or working faster and more efficiently. Or, worse yet, by working the same jobs for less money.

Inflation, of course, spells higher gold costs, and it’s an eventually that a lot of economists predict. Do you think the stimulus package will be enough to jolt the economy back on track? Judging by recent gold prices, not everyone does.

Japan has Lockdown on World’s Largest Gold Ingot


Posted by: Fred Marion

September 29, 2009

worlds-largest-gold-ingot-toi-gold-museumA symbol of power and stability, holding a gold cache is considered one of the safest investments in the world. Just like individuals, it seems every country in the world wants to be in possession of the world’s largest gold ingot, too. It’s the ultimate display of wealth and opulence, and countries regularly outdo one another for possession of the “World’s Largest Gold Ingot.”

Here’s a rundown of some recent record-breakers and their value (as calculated on Sept. 28, 2009, when gold sold for $991 per ounce):

    •  2001, The Eureka Ingot. $1.3 million. An 80-pound ingot, the Eureka was made in America during the 1800s. At the time, it had it’s value written on the surface: $17,433.57. In today’s dollars, the gold ingot would be worth $1.3 million. The giant ingot spent 100 years on the floor of the ocean after the boat carrying it sank on a trip to New York. The news frightened Americans so much, there was a run on the banks. [Telegraph]
    •  2006, The Formosan Ingot. $7.7 million. Weighing in at 220kg, it was good enough for a spot in the Guinness Book of World Records. China was so proud of it, they cast a China Black Bear Coin (copper with gold plating) to commemorate the birth of their gold ingot. The coin features a giant Formosan black bear looking down at the the viewer – a metaphor for achievement.
    •  2009, The Toi Gold Ingot. $8.7 million. Housed at the Toi Gold Museum in Japan, the 250 kg gold ingot (photo above) is the current record-holder for “the largest manufactured pure gold bar.” The centerpiece of a museum detailing gold mining, the gold ingot is secured so that museum visitors can touch it (and, no doubt, imagine what they’d do if it were theirs).

R.I.P. Oil ETFs: The Death of Some Popular Funds


Posted by: Fred Marion

September 29, 2009

To date, three Oil ETFs have been shuttered, and it’s likely more are on the chopping block. The recent G20 summit in Pittsburgh, gave the US Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) more power to investigate “market abuse.” The CFTC even went as far as signing an information-sharing agreement with the British Financial Services Authority.

In England, there’s talk about phone-tapping as a way to detect abuse. All the while, regular investors could be trading Oil ETFs on the brink of closure (and, in rare cases, won’t receive advance notice).

Here’s a recap on the three closed funds:

1) MACROshares $100 Oil Down Trust (DOY). Died June 25, 2009. DOY was an inverse fund that tracked the spot price of West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude oil (WTI). The ETF reached a pre-determined termination trigger detailed in the prospectus. Its forced closure (a result of the trigger) was announced on May 15, 2009.

2) MacroShares $100 Oil Up Trust (UOY). Died June 25, 2009. UOY tracked the spot price of West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude oil (WTI). The ETF reached a pre-determined termination trigger detailed in the prospectus. Its forced closure (a result of the trigger) was announced on May 15, 2009.

3) Deutsche Bank AG (London) DB Crude Oil Double Long (DXO). Died Sept. 9, 2009. The most popular of the ETNs closed to date was DXO. Managed by Deutsche Bank, the fund sought to track 200% of the daily return of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity index – Optimum Yield Oil Excess Return. The stock was trading 12M+ shares per day, but, apparently got too big and too volatile to accurately reflect it’s underlying holdings – at least in the opinion of regulators.

More Oil ETFs (particularly high-volume leveraged funds) face scrutiny as the Obama administration seeks to curb the influence of “speculators,” but the likelihood is, other ETFs will open in their place. There’s obviously demand, and where there’s demand, there will be a product.

What Will Twitter Do With $100 Million?


Posted by: Fred Marion

September 28, 2009

twitterFirst, let me get this disclaimer out of the way: I’ve got an iPhone. Second, let me say the Internet success stories of the year are coming down to two companies: Twitter and Apple [[AAPL]].

The sucess of Apple’s iPhone is so ubiquitous that you can’t walk to the break room without hearing someone talking about their new app. Shareholders like the phone’s popularity, and, since Jan. 1, Apple’s stock has added $100 in value to each of its 895 million shares (a stock price leapfrog from $85.35 to $182, or 113 percent).

Twitter’s most recent round of fund raising pulled in $100 million, with the deal makers putting a $1 billion price tag on the company. It’s a far cry from Apple’s market capitalization of $163 billion, but you’ve got to keep in mind that Twitter hasn’t really started making much money.

Why, then, would investors be willing to pump $100 million into the company? There can only be one answer: Web site traffic. The number of visitors to the site has catapulted up some 900 percent over the last 12 months from 3 million visitors to 27 million visitors.

Of course, there are other reasons, too. The company beautifully melds mobile technology and the Internet making it one of the best-positioned company’s on the Web. It’s also got some pretty incredible talent at hand (Biz Stone and Evan Williams – the latter of whom founded Blogger which was snapped up by Google).

We’re finally on to the important question, though. What will Twitter do with $100 million? It’s all speculation at this point, but we must infer that it has plans to aggressively pursue revenues. Otherwise, companies like T. Rowe Price [[TROW]] wouldn’t be willing to open up their wallets. A recent article at Reuters offered some hints:

    •   Advanced analytics software that will give business access to advanced Web stats.

    •   An IPO. Twitter might decide to go public, thereby leveraging the $100 million the company’s already raised. This would certainly help the company expand its scope.

    •   Acquisitions. Twitter could start gobbling up other revenue-rich companies as a way to support its core service while it figures out how to monetize Twitter. Tough task, but I imagine they’ll find a way to do it. Traffic is gold in the online world.

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